Israel's transition to new leadership

Author: Aaron Sebag
16 February 2009 - Issue : 821

Centrist Kadima party leader and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni gives a victorious wave as she enters her party's election headquarters in a Tel Aviv hotel, Israel, early 11 February 2009, as election results show her leading by two Knesset (Parliament) seats. The right-wing Likud party was close behind and, a short while later, with 99 per cent of the votes counted, Livni's Kadima party is in first place with 28 of the Knesset's 120 seats, with Netanyahu's Likud party winning 27 seats. Both candidates are claiming a victory, and now must wait until President Shimon Peres consults with all parties and selects who the parties think has the best chance to form the next coalition government.

As the European Political Community awaits the formation of Israel’s 32nd coalition government under the leadership of a new Prime Minister, this current juncture necessitates European leaders to take stock of the momentum and realignment of political power that has begun to take place within the Israeli Political establishment. The resulting implications of such trends and the effects to which they will influence the timing and materialization of proper conditions for the resumption of a multi-faceted diplomatic approach to a final Israeli- Palestinian peace agreement will strongly be based on the development of coalition talks this upcoming week.

The framework for coalition building

Following the results of what had been an expected tight election, Tzipni Livni, leader of Israel’s centre-left Kadima party, has emerged with a one seat lead over the previous government’s right wing Likud opposition chairman Benjamin Netanyahu. Kadima having been allotted 28 seats compared to Likud’s 27 in the upcoming Israeli Knesset, now finds itself in a challenging fight for its own continuation as the country’s leading governing party.

One of Livni’s main talking points throughout the campaign emphasized the importance of maintaining a “two states for two peoples” goal as the proper approach through which future negotiations should be directed. The upcoming transition of political power within Israel has placed the international community of nations at the crossroads in which a reassessment in current policy positions towards both Israeli and Palestinians authorities must occur. Whether or not a continuation of policies supportive of the existing status quo or a time for a change in the respective dynamics of negotiations between both parties is at hand remains the million dollar question. The near parity of Kadima and Likud in last Tuesday’s election has further complicated the direction under which Israel’s leadership is heading. Although Kadima has stayed within the range in terms of its previously held number of seats in the government(29), such conditions cannot be seen as a guarantee that Kadima will be able to form another unity government as it had done under outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. The main reasons for this include, the overall strengthening in mandates of historically right wing based parties along with a substantial reduction of mandates for the Labor party, formerly Kadima’s strongest coalition ally in the prior government, from 19 to 13 allotted seats. Furthermore given the affiliation and breakdown of party leverage it may still be easier for Netanyahu to put together the minimum required majority of 61 of the parliament’s 120 total seats to form his government.

The politics of numbers

The Likud having won a mere twelve mandates in the previous 2006 national elections, has picked up an additional 15 seats and in doing so has become the biggest winner in terms of relative party power from election to election . Such gains have put it within strong position to negotiate during the coalition building process which will officially begin on February 18th as Israeli President Shimon Peres begins consultations with Knesset party leaders over who will be the most capable of forming the next government. As of yet neither Tzipni Livni or the Benjamin Netanyahu has been able to garner enough party backing to gain the commanding position needed to take charge of coalition building. The shape and direction behind the formation of the next government will come down to two very important factors. Firstly, a tightly lead Likud Coalition will need to find a way to reconcile the interests and positions of two contrastingly different smaller parties both of whose participation in a Netanyahu government would be essential . It remains to be seen whether or not Likud will be able to align Avigdor Lieberman’s secularist Israel Beiteinu Party (15 mandates) with that of the Religious based Shas Party (11 mandates) both of which have had previously clashing differences between one another in their beliefs and programs for Israeli society. Secondly, the apparent deliberate decision of the Labor Party (12 seats) to exile itself back into the Opposition has thrown a significant hurdle in the way of Tzipni Livni’s ability to recreate the previous government’s Kadima- Labor alliance. Should Labor choose to stick to its intention of staying in the opposition and Likud find itself unable to bridge the gap between Shahs and Israel Beitenu, the only other viable alternative would be the formation of a National Unitary government between Kadima and the Likud. Although both Livni and Netanyahu have previously and publically entertained the possibility of perusing such action, sources close to Netanyahu admit that privately Netanyahu wanted to see Ehud Barak as his defense minister and Livni in the opposition. Therefore as long as Labor chooses to remain in the opposition its seems as if either, Likud and Labor will have to work out some form of a power sharing arrangement, if not, Netanyahu will have to rely on a weak coalition, susceptible to internal pressure and viewed as being intractable in terms of its willingness to make progress with the Palestinians. On the other hand, Livni without Likud will have will be forced to turn to her less natural and friendly political allies

The composition of Israel’s 32^nd Government will reflect the priorities of its political leaders. If party politics and interests are put before the greater national interest through the eventual formation of a narrowly supported coalition instead of a more stable government with a greater supportive majority, then it will remain highly unlikely for Israel to accomplish much progress with the Palestinians.

The pragmatic approach

If after meeting with Peres, Netanyahu is seen as being politically fit to form the next government, the most expedient move he could make would be to form a narrow, right wing coalition with the 65-70 MK’s of the Likud’s aligned parties. However, Netanyahu has previously stated that not forming a national unitary government was the biggest mistake of his political career, and has for all pragmatic purposes taken the option of doing otherwise off the table. Therefore as the mandate given by voters to his party requires flexibility, Netanyahu will have to undertake a serious cost-benefit analysis between the ability of his party to find compromise on its positions with other parties in exchange for ensuring a more supportive and lasting new government.

The structure and timing behind the creation of a Palestinian National Unity Government will undoubtedly play a significant role in how the Likud- Kadima lead government will approach its future security agenda. As both Livni and Netanyahu have stressed the importance behind promoting political initiatives with a pragmatic Palestinian Authority, Israel will ultimately need to have a reliable, accountable and popularly supported counterpart for any lasting bi-lateral peace agreement.

If the European Parliament seeks to establish itself as an honest broker it must work to use this transition time to better understand the preferences of both parties. Two states for two people.