The habitual tranquility among the five littoral states of the energy-rich Caspian Sea has been broken by the Turkmen leader’s announcement early September of his country’s intention to create a naval base and to acquire two missile ships. The experts are divided diametrically over this statement. Some of them see no reason for concern, while the others anticipate future serious tension in the region.
Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov made his announcement about creation in a nearest future of a naval base and frontier service at the Caspian Sea when he spoke at the enlarged session of the State Council for Security, according to RIA Novosti. The Turkmen leader explained such a decision by the “necessity to protect the Caspian coast of this country from outside encroachments.” For these purposes, Turkmenistan will build an efficient system of location and optical sea control. The former Soviet republic has already begun shopping for modern high speed patrol boats. In its plans is a purchase of two modern missile ships. It is noteworthy that the announcement of the Turkmen leader was made ten days prior to an informal meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan scheduled to be held in Aktau. The forthcoming Aktau summit, even if informal, is expected to relieve a certain tension that always arises from such kind of announcements.  There has already been a tension between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan for quite a while over the borderline oil fields — Kyapaz, Omar and Osman — that both republics are laying claims to.
In August, Berdymukhamedov announced his intention to go to an international court to resolve this dispute. A month later, a second announcement followed, about a future naval base. RIA Novosti quoted the Turkmen leader as saying that his country’s military should “effectively fight the smugglers, terrorists and any other force that may try to violate Turkmenistan’s state sea border.” Turkmenistan is yet to determine its Caspian borders with the other states. Some experts believe Berdymukhamedov’s statement shows the seriousness of Turkmenistan’s intentions. Other experts, commenting on a possible military conflict in the Caspian region, think that “the probability of a military showdown at the Caspian Sea between Turkmenistan and its neighbors is very low.”
In the meantime, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Kazakhstan Lyatif Gandilov told New Europe in an interview that he did not see a reason for concerns. “The statement by the president of Turkmenistan should not be regarded as a result of the differences between our countries, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan,” the diplomat said.
Gandilov also mentioned that Turkmenistan holds contracts with Europe for supply of its gas to several gas pipelines and that, naturally, any shipment requires security. “Turkmenistan is a peaceful country, and therefore the steps that it is taking should be also regarded from a positive perspective,” the Azeri ambassador said.
“Kazakhstan stands for a stable military balance of the Caspian states at sea, for a military building within the agreed limits of reasonable sufficiency, and for control over the number of arms,” Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Erzhan Ashikbaev said in the ministry’s official response to the Turkmen leader’s announcement. But the Kazakh diplomat emphasized that they received no information through the official channels about Turkmenistan’s plans to build a naval base at the Caspian Sea in the near future.
Ashikbaev said Kazakhstan is proposing cooperation between not only the naval forces of the Caspian neighbors, but also between their frontier services, customs, and environmental agencies.
The current situation has once again shown that the Caspian states should try, as soon as possible, to resolve the status of the Caspian Sea and their boundaries within it. Caspian littoral states have eyed the Caspian Sea’s rich hydrocarbon fields since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan have all competed for rights to exploit the area.
At present, three countries – Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan – seem to have agreed on the issue of the division of the bottom of the Caspian Sea. They have both bilateral and trilateral agreements on the matter. They have also come to an agreement on the coordinates of the division line. The issue remains unresolved between the other two countries – Turkmenistan and Iran. Because of their disagreement, in spite of the many years of discussions, the status of the Caspian Sea remains undetermined.