In just 8 years – under Putin – Russia rapidly accelerated its trade growth with Europe. It is catching up to China’s position on the continent very quickly. To this author’s surprise, Russia is now ahead of China in some other key indicators of economic relations with Europe. This trend, if continued, will have beneficial security consequences, but will test the diplomatic skills of the United States.
According to a Eurostat report released in August 2009, the growth rate in Russia’s imports from Europe from 2001-2008 was twice the growth rate of China’s imports from Europe in the same period. In Euro terms, in 2008 the value of Russian imports from Europe exceeded the value of Chinese imports from the EU for the first year in the eight-year period.
The trend in foreign direct investment is similar. In the five years from 2004-2008, Russia overtook China both in terms of flows from the EU and into the EU.
In public opinion surveys in Europe in recent years, while the picture is mixed, Russia’s stocks appear to have risen while those of China have fallen. By 2009, only 29 per cent of Germans polled by the Pew Research Centre had a favorable view of China while 42 per cent had a favorable view of Russia. This was a gain for Russia of 8 per cent and decline for China of 3 per cent.
This trend is remarkable given that in polls taken in 2007 and 2008, most Germans show high levels of concern about the country’s energy dependence on Russia and most Europeans reveal high levels of dissatisfaction with Vladimir Putin. The period was also marked by the crisis between Russia and Georgia in August 2008.
Opinion polls in some countries, such as Poland, did not follow this trend of more positive views of Russia.
If these growth trends in Russia’s economic relations and positive image with Europe continue, then the political consequences will be substantial. One would expect a softening of relations between Russia and the EU on the one hand, and ultimately, a softening of relations between Russia and NATO.
Of course, there is no need for Europe to choose between good relations with Russia and good relations with China. And economic and public opinion indicators of the sort mentioned above will vary over time. But in strategic terms, a drawing together of Russia and the European Union at the same time as there is a weakening of the latter’s relations with China certainly poses a question about longer-term strategic alignment.
Can we expect a further consolidation of the European sphere (EU + Russia) as a counter, perhaps sub-consciously, to China’s growing economic power and wealth, and its way of doing business?
My answer would be yes. There are recent signs of an upturn in political relations between Russia and the rest of Europe, not least the consideration by France of a sale to Russia of an amphibious assault ship. Through a series of diplomatic moves, Russia has been successful in having its voice heard more clearly on a number of European security issues, including missile defence and European security architecture.
We may be entering a new era of relations between Russia and Europe. If that is the case, the United States will have to adjust its diplomacy accordingly. Growing economic ties and cross-border movement between Russia and the rest of Europe will gradually start to put more distance between Americans and the EU citizenry on issues of security policy. Even as American economic power in Europe remains strong, and the personal ties across the Atlantic are extremely deep, the power of new Europe is steadily increasing. Russia’s economic resurgence into and with the European Union is part of that power shift. Will U.S.-Russia diplomatic relations adjust accordingly?