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Mr. Papandreou goes to Washington

Author: Alec Mally
7 March 2010 - Issue : 876



Any visit of a Greek Prime Minister to Washington carries special weight and it is usually surrounded by extreme expectations and over-analysis of the smallest possible detail. The Prime Minister’s Washington visit has the appearance of a rushed nature. Since there are only a few days to pull the George Papandreou visit together, I would like to offer preliminary observations about what is likely, based on my time as an “insider,” as Senior Desk Officer for Greece at the State Department at the end of the Clinton Admini­stration. Ten days is not optimal, but is still adequate, to arrange a short Washington visit. The complicating factor for the Greek side is the need for the Prime Minister to meet with the U.S. Government, Congress, the IMF, and the press, all in a short time.  I do not envy the schedulers. 
The White House Dance:  We need protocol details, but here we can expect a standard Presidential “working meeting,” normally with the head of the National Security Council and the Secretary of State in attendance. In these circumstances, it would not be unusual for the Secretary of the Treasury or other senior White House economic advisers to be in attendance. It remains to be seen if the Federal Reserve Bank will be included in the meeting, not a normal occurrence.  We can expect at least one-third of the meeting to focus on economic issues, something absolutely unusual for a Greek Prime Minister
Meetings regarding the Economic Crisis:  We will need to review the program to see if separate meetings are being requested for PM Papandreou on the Greek economy or Eurozone finances; based on who is included in the Obama meeting. It is not inconceivable that a separate, detailed meeting on economic issues could be arranged at the White House, since the Treasury and National Economic Council are exactly next door. IMF Stop-Obligatory:  Although the possible role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is related to the PM’s negotiations with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, we should expect a session at the IMF, located a few blocks from the White House. In good times, PM Papandreou would consider this session as optional, but not this time. U.S. support for Greek requests for assistance from the IMF should be taken as agreed already – in the current situation, the U.S. Executive Director at the IMF, who receives orders directly from the Treasury Department, will be as helpful as possible. 
Role of the State Department; Watch out George:  There will certainly be a meeting with Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, the “counterpart” to “Foreign Minister” Papandreou. The focus will be on regional issues rather than economics. This is probably the most dangerous meeting for Greece, as officials there (and only there) will actually try to press for “progress” on Greece’s national issues and more Greek participation in Afghanistan. The U.S. will probably have little new to say on Aegean issues or regarding Cyprus, but will probe for Greek flexibility on the FYROM name issue. The U.S. is unlikely to press Greece, in its current weakened state, to make concessions in favor of Skopje, but it cannot be excluded that there will be some “secret message” from Skopje waiting in Secretary Clinton’s office. Any U.S. diplomat worth the name - and ours are quite good - will be spending this week trying to convince PM NikolaGruevski up in Skopje to deliver a new message. It will be up to Foreign Minister Papandreou to decide if he will give Washington the right to inject itself right now. If Washington can actually deliver new flexibility from Skopje, instead of the same tired old rhetoric, the Foreign Minister may be in for a pleasant surprise.  We can always hope. Extra-curricular Activities: A meeting with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has already been arranged. Any Washington visit at the Prime Minister level would normally include something similar. We will need to see how many press events (expect a focus on economics) and side meetings – such as with the Hellenic Caucus on Capitol Hill — can be crammed into the visit.
The “watchers” will be watching: Many foreign observers, but especially the Embassies of Turkey and FYROM, will be monitoring the visit carefully, especially the protocol elements, for signs that Papandreou has more or less access than their respective leaders. These will reported home through those embassies and via the press, and who knows what conclusions they will draw, but it would be worrisome if something important were dropped from PM Papandreou’s program due to the rushed nature of the trip. And, of course, there will be requests for “equal” treatment if PM Papandreou is seen to have received any form of “special favors.” 
Papandreou has a really tough schedule that is substantially different from past visits of Greek PMs to Washington, when most of the times we were watching protocol-oriented meetings or, at worst, low value political and public relations agendas. Papandreou’s superb English and unsurpassed familiarity with Washington power politics allow him a significant advantage in his efforts. There are many who feel that a better time could have been selected for such a trip, when better planning for a renew agenda would allow Greece to re-position its image in Washington and enhance its role. However, the Prime Minister has demonstrated a unique capability to cope with complex and emerging challenges and to surpass long term misalignment in Greece’s foreign relations. Good luck!
Alec Mally is currently Director for Global Economic Affairs at IPEDIS – Institute for Regional Dialogue & Strategy. He has served more than seven years in various positions in the US Mission in Athens and Thessaloniki, including as Consul General. In preparing this article, he drew his experience as Senior Desk Officer for Greece at the State Department in the period 1999-2001
 



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