The crucial vote on Ireland’s 2 October re-vote on the European Union’s governing document, the Lisbon Treaty – which replaced the failed EU Constitution and was rejected by the Irish last year – became even iffier after an opinion poll showed the ‘No’ vote picking up steam and a report that the British would rethink their ratification if a new government is elected. There was good news in Germany, where the treaty was ratified.
The Irish-British double jeopardy cast some doubt on what European Union leaders hoped would be a fait accompli, even though they haven’t campaigned in support of the re-vote, and a no vote could doom Ireland’s chances of keeping its European Commissioner. Czech President Vaclav Klaus confirmed that British Conservative leader David Cameron sent him a letter on a plan to hold a referendum on the Lisbon reform treaty if the Conservatives win next year’s British election and the pact has not yet been adopted. This could throw a spanner in the works of the progress of the treaty, which must be approved by all 27 member states. According to current opinion polls, Cameron’s Conservative Party is seen as the likely winner of the election, which must take place by May 2010. Klaus, an outspoken critic of the Lisbon Treaty, which aims to streamline decision-making in the enlarged EU, could help Cameron to execute his plan by delaying the Czech signing of the pact until the British general election. Klaus’s signature is the last step required for Czech ratification. The treaty would become valid only after all 27 EU member states ratify it. The EU hopes that it would come into force on 1 January.
In Ireland, as the clock ticks down this week, the pro-Lisbon vote is leading by 59-41 per cent when undecided voters are excluded, according to the poll. The ‘No’ side has also gained some ground, up four points to 33 per cent since the last Irish Times poll three weeks ago, while 48 per cent said they would vote yes, an increase of two points. The percentage of those who said they did not know has fallen by six points to 19 per cent.
The marginal increase in the ‘Yes’ vote in the final stages of the campaign will come as a relief to supporters of the Lisbon Treaty, but the larger increase in the ‘No’ vote will give anti-treaty campaigners grounds to believe they can still win the referendum. The final Irish Times poll at a similar stage in the first Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign in June 2008 put the ‘No’ side in the lead with 35 per cent of the vote compared with 30 per cent who said they were voting ‘Yes’. At that stage 35 per cent of voters were still undecided.
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said “With the German ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon, Europe has taken another important step towards more capacity to act, democratic accountability and influence at global level.” Germany is one of the strongest backers of the treaty. But its ratification had been slowed by lawsuits and a direction by judges to amend domestic legislation so that it clearly set out when Germany’s parliament must be consulted on EU matters.