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The Cold Case Of (Premeditated?) Intelligence Failures

15 November 2009 - Issue : 860


The end of World War II found the United Kingdom winners, but literally bankrupt. The first item in budgetary cuts was military expenditures, and the first thing that the UK did not need at the time was the costly services of military espionage abroad. So, in a closed door meeting with his Generals and Admirals, Prime Minister Winston Churchill announced during a secret meeting at the War Office that the government could not financially sustain the famous MI6 intelligence department any more, and consequently this department had to be closed. The military was shocked, and after Churchill let them fry in their own juice, he told them:  “However, I found a solution; we will donate MI6 to the CIA, the newly-established American intelligence agency from the transformation of the SAS.” The British Generals and Admirals were shocked again and told Churchill that MI6 was the jewel of the British crown and it would be a sacrilege to give it to the Americans. Churchill replied, “What are you talking about? By donating MI6 to the CIA not only will they pay the salaries we cannot, but in the long run we will be completely controlling the American intelligence community.” And so it happened.
The British dragged the Americans in Iraq by providing false information about the presumed possession by Saddam Hussein of weapons of mass destruction that didn’t exist. In reality, it was then the UK’s prime minister, Tony Blair, who convinced the-then American president George W. Bush to invade Iraq on such false information. Another major American intelligence failure was in the case of Persia and its nuclear weapons program.
For years, the Americans were philosophizing, making endless and meaningless guesses about the possibility that Tehran might one day develop nuclear warheads. And one beautiful and sunny afternoon in New York City, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told everybody that his country didn’t have a nuclear weapons plant, but a couple of days later, Iran started testing medium-range missiles. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure that one out. More than a few analysts think this intelligence failure could well be premeditated because it will raise tension and NATO will start a new round of buying the next generation of nuclear weapons in retaliation, and have an excuse to do so. There was another case of a major intelligence failure - the 9/11 terrorist act which resulted in the catastrophic - for our political civilization- American Patriot Act which affects us all. Yet, this is a case that can build a case.
The issue today is the new Cold War unfolding in full-scale between the United States and Russia which is revitalizing the concept of the old blocs, East and West, and which got out of control because the East includes China. This was obvious after the signing of a package of agreements with China after the visit there of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Beijing. Washington thought that by setting up a new, large-scale Cold War that Russia would be isolated. But Russia has always been a global power. However, for a long time after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US created the impression that the US was one and only superpower in a uni-polar world system. Washington tried to achieve this by blocking Russia in any way it could, especially by playing political games with oil and gas pipelines and sales. The US did not succeed, but Russia is facing two serious problems which help the Americans in their plans.
First, the Russian economy is being developed by a group of oligarchs, who are the modern nomenclature and work closely with the Kremlin. And secondly, there is a large number of state enterprises which are detrimental to the economic development of Russia. Last week, Russian Prime Minister Dimitry Medvedev delivered the annual Address of the Nation speech under the watchful eyes of Putin, addressing the issue of the state companies. It remains to be seen what will happen with the oligarchs. Another problem of Russia is its introversion. This is an issue that will develop separately since it is big, serious and to a big extent determines the mistakes Russian diplomacy is doing. In any case, US-Russian relations have deteriorated rapidly, feeding the new Cold War. Putin’s snub last month in Moscow of the visiting US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton underlines the problematic relations of the two global powers. US-Russian relations are passing through the same intelligence scenario that resulted in the 9/11 catastrophe, the Iraq invasion and the dearth of information about the burgeoning Iranian nuclear arsenal. The American efforts to isolate Russia have seemingly succeeded, but it’s not such a big success after all if one considers that in the Eastern bloc that Moscow can now count on Beijing, while Washington cannot clearly count on the European Union.
 

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