Africa’s newest capital: Is Europe ready?

Juba in Southern Sudan is the newest location for Europe to set up a diplomatic outpost. The European Commission opened a delegation there just under a month ago. On September 18, South Africa’s Foreign Minister Maite Nkona Mashabane was in Juba to hold talks on normalization of “relations” with Southern Sudan.
China officially opened a consulate in Juba one year ago to support a growing presence of Chinese workers and Chinese national interests in the region. The UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon was in Juba this past week, since the UN has 10,000 peacekeepers in southern Sudan.
The diplomatic rush to this city of more than 200,000 began in earnest in 2005 but we see a fresh intensity. The Autonomous Government of Southern Sudan, for which this White Nile River city is capital, could become independent under a referendum scheduled for 2011. This is included in the terms of a 2005 peace agreement that ended one of Africa’s longest civil wars (1983-2005).
EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana caused a stir this month when he said that Europe hoped Sudan would remain united after the referendum. The statement was quickly challenged by representatives of Southern Sudan who reminded him politely that the peace agreement provides for two options, of which one was complete independence.
Juba is deep in the south of Sudan, and lies very close to the borders with Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Congo. As a result, the internal conflicts and foreign policies of these countries – each facing security threats themselves – have been playing out as Southern Sudan heads for possible independence.
Tribal clashes in Southern Sudan and other political violence continue, with several serious attacks in recent weeks, one on August 28 that reportedly killed 38 and injured 64 in a half-hour raid by 800 armed men. The government of Sudan is of course keen to promote the continued unity of Sudan, but the two sides can’t even agree yet on terms of the referendum. Will a 51 percent vote in favor be enough to provide for independence or will a 75 percent vote be needed?
Europe needs a new sense of urgency about the situation in Sudan. Few governments seem to be prepared to contemplate the emergence of a newly independent state in an already troubled area. Even the Lord’s Resistance Army from Uganda has become involved and Kenya has reportedly sent 200 military advisers to the Juba government.
People in the south are critical of China’s support to the north with weapons and political cover at the United Nations. Many in the north see the hand of the CIA in supporting secession by the South. The picture is not so simple, but there are enough counter-currents of violence and external political involvement to suggest that the path to the referendum and possible secession will get more complex, not less.
There is massive good will in the international community toward all communities in Sudan. Norway, the United States and the United Kingdom have invested heavily in peaceful outcomes. China is now significantly engaged. The European Union and other member states like the Netherlands provide economic assistance and political support to buttress peace.
It would be useful to know what preparations these players are making for the political act of secession. Assessments from several places suggest that the new country would be a relatively weak state. Secession would destabilize the politics of the rest of the country. As the referendum date draws closer, the sense of insecurity mounts. Politics in Sudan will not rest while foreign bureaucrats draw up well-considered plans of long-term economic reconstruction. The Sudanese people will themselves have to make the tough decisions, but those from outside who want to avoid war should by now have prepared for the contingency of it. As the referendum app­roaches in 2011, clouded by national elections next year and active preparations for renewed fighting, we need confidence that there is a plan for keeping the peace in the days and weeks after any act of secession or, even earlier, after any collapse of the peace agreement.