Banking on Asia’s nuclear revolution is an uneasy bet

It is not always fashionable to talk about “Asia” as a force in global affairs. By the 19th Century, the term Asia was understood (in Europe) to mean: east of the Urals, East of the Bosphorous, East of the Red Sea and bounded in the east by the Pacific Ocean – in other words the “orient.”
In most respects the geographic descriptor, dating from Herodotus, is entirely out of step with modern political and economic relationships. But there are times when it may be justified to view Asia as a geopolitical entity. If we want to control and eliminate nuclear weapons, then the identification of “Asia” as an analytical reference point is important.
In 1945, Asia was the site of the first and only nuclear attack. Asia has been the location of most nuclear weapons proliferation challenges in the past 10 years: North Korea, Iran, and Iraq. According to the World Nuclear Association, “Asia is the only region in the world where electricity generating capacity and specifically nuclear power is growing significantly.” The association reports that “in East and South Asia, there are over 111 nuclear power reactors in operation, 21 under construction and plans to build about a further 150.”
At the same time, Asia is the region of the world most opposed to the nuclear weapons policies of the United States and Russia, and most critical of their failure to make more rapid progress to nuclear disarmament. Some leaders in Asia say they want a revolution in nuclear affairs: an end to limits on their access to civil nuclear technologies and massive reduction in the nuclear arsenals by Russia and the United States. For most states in Asia, some fundamental reform of international order itself is seen as central to progress on the major threats facing the world, including those related to nuclear technologies and weapons.

A nuclear dilemma
The great powers of Asia - Japan, China and India - are readily acknowledged as having the potential to challenge the global order on such issues. Smaller states of Asia, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, retain important capacities to affect that order. Some regional organisations within Asia, such as ASEAN, have worked for and remain committed to such reform.
But in spite of its potential as a force for good in this area, Asia remains divided into sub-regional groups, and some of those groups face serious divisions. Asia certainly does not speak with one voice. The leaders of Asia have shown their willingness to fall in behind global consensus on particular measures, but they rarely lead. More prominent states (India, China and Japan) have acted with apparent timidity – they might call it deliberate intent — in advancing their global reform agendas. Therefore, on key questions of global nuclear security, we face a need to bridge the views of Asia’s countries not with those of other regions but with each other.
This opens up an interesting challenge. As the world prepares for the 2010 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty Review Conference, can the leaders of Asia unite to exploit their new power as consumers of civil nuclear technology from outside Asia as leverage to force a faster pace in nuclear disarmament? The answer is “maybe.” If they join together in a new non-proliferation mechanism such as a nuclear fuel bank, instead of pursuing national approaches, then they might just be surprised by the results on the disarmament side of the ledger.
The most important move in global nuclear affairs in the next decade might therefore be within the grasp of Asia – but its leaders would need to work together in unprecedented ways to achieve it.
 

Dr. Greg Austin is Vice President at the EastWest Institute and Director of EWI’s Global Security Program and Policy Innovation, with 30 years experience in international affairs, including senior posts in academia and government. He has also held senior posts at the International Crisis Group and the Foreign Policy Centre London. He is the Founding Chair of the Asian Century Institute in London and author of several highly reviewed books on international security, especially on Asia.