Not exactly a Vision Quest

Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso is in a hurry to secure his reappointment during the European Council June summit and, from his stand point, he is quite right. Indeed he knows, that now, the winds are favorable for his reelection, having secured the necessary qualified majority based on the European People’s Party (EPP) endorsement. Timewise it could not be better. The European People’s Party is highly likely to bring a clear-cut victory in the June 7 European election and this, in theory- ceteris paribu - secures Barroso the re-appointment. The possibility of a “Black Swan,” that is, of an outsider who will “steal” the show in June, is highly unlikely, unless something extraordinary happens. Given that chances for the appearance of a Black Swan if the selection process is deferred until after October are much higher, President Barroso is pushing for a decision from the heads of state to make the appointment in June, although, according to his entourage, he has not declared himself as yet a candidate for the post.

Not all of the decision makers participating in this process, however, are in the same hurry. On the contrary, there is a growing number of Member State leaders, starting with the French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who, although they endorse Barroso for president, think that the election of the president can wait until after the Irish referendum. Ireland will decide on the Lisbon Treaty before the end of October. Technically, any appointment before the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty will be done according to the Nice Treaty. This complicates things and justifies the stance of Sarkozy and other leaders who prefer to decide everything, including the nomination of the President of the Commission, after the issue of the Lisbon Treaty is determined.

If the president of the Commission and his College are all appointed in June, it will be according to Nice. This means fewer Commissioners than Members States, which implies that at least one country will be left without a Commissioner. This seems unlikely to happen since no country will accept being the one with no Commissioner. Even more so since nobody can guarantee that the Lisbon Treaty will be approved by the Irish. For such a decision, unanimity needs to be reached and not a qualified majority, so the appointment of Commissioners will be deferred until after October. Under the circumstances, since the Lisbon Treaty, if ratified, will enter into effect on January 1, 2010, the mandate of this Commission will be extended until December 31, 2009.

The possibility of also appointing, together with the College, a European Foreign Minister in June as a way out by giving that position to the country that will have no Commissioner, has been ruled out. The European Foreign Minister will occupy the combined posts of the Commissioner for External Relations, served by Benita Ferrero- Waldner, and that of the High Representative, currently occupied by Javier Solana, and will also be vice president of the Commission. Thus, the end result will again be a College of 27, which is against the mandates of Nice.

The suggestion of President Barroso to appoint only him in June and leave the rest of the business until after the Irish referendum is losing ground, especially because the basic argument that such an early appointment will secure a “smooth transition” is rather weak. Indeed, it will be quite weird to have the President of the European Commission appointed under the provisions of one Treaty and have his College appointed under the provisions of another. Besides this controversy, however, there is a substantial political argument in favor of settling everything after the Irish referendum.

First, because the positive outcome of the Irish referendum cannot be predicted. The Cyprus referendum case is very fresh in the memories of European leaders. Second, because all positions should be put on the table at the same time. Sources close to the EPP party claim that they should get the two top posts provided by Lisbon which are the President of the European Union - which could be well assigned to Barroso - and, the European Foreign Minister. As to the third ranking position, that of the President of the Commission, a post that under Lisbon will be degraded, this can be left for the Socialists, who will be the second political force in Europe.