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Australia’s goal of cutting emissions by 15% in 2020
Author: Hon Penny Wong, Minister for Climate Change and Water, Australia
5 January 2009 - Issue : 815


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    Twelve months ago – as the first official act of the newly elected Rudd Government - Australia ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Now, Australia is taking another important step on the path to a low-carbon future. On December 15 the Australian Government released its policy ‘White Paper’ on the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. The White Paper sets out Australia’s medium and long-term emissions reduction goals and the design of Australia’s emissions trading regime. Australia has a dual vulnerability to climate change. Already a hot and dry country, Australia will be particularly affected by rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. And as a relatively small and open resource-based economy, Australia could face significant economic impacts from inefficient and uncoordinated action to reduce global emissions.

    These circumstances mean that the challenges Australia faces are different from those of other countries, including those in Europe.

    Australia’s particular national circumstances – including its rapid population growth, large share of energy and emissionintensive industries, and heavy reliance on fossil fuels for energy – mean that it faces a relatively greater structural adjustment task to reduce emissions than many other developed countries.

    Nevertheless we recognise the critical importance of moving with other countries to a low-carbon future. Australia’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme will be the primary vehicle for achieving our domestic efforts to halt and then reduce emissions for the first time in our history.

    By introducing a cap and trade emissions trading system, Australia is joining a growing group of countries that have developed or are developing similar schemes, the most established of which is the European Union’s scheme introduced in 2005.

    The Australian Scheme will be one of the worlds most comprehensive and robust emissions trading regimes, covering 75 percent of our emissions. Its introduction represents one of the largest economic and structural reforms since the opening up of Australia’s economy to the world in the 1980s and 90s. A genuine commitment to respond to climate change requires both short-term action and long-term planning.

    Like the European Union, Australia will meet its Kyoto target, limiting emissions to eight percent above 1990 levels over 2008- 2012. This represents a significant break from past trends. The next step is to reduce emissions in absolute terms.

    Even if the rest of the world were to do nothing, Australia would unilaterally reduce its emissions in 2020 by five per cent below 2000 levels. And we would be willing to reduce our emissions by 15 percent in the context of a global agreement that includes advanced countries committing to comparable economy wide targets and major developing country emitters committing to substantially constrain emissions.

    This mid-term target range will steer us towards our longer term domestic goal of reducing emissions by 60 per cent below 2000 levels by 2050.

    If we were to get an even more ambitious global agreement that would result in stabilising global greenhouse gas concentrations at 450ppm – which would give us a much better chance of avoiding dangerous climate change – Australia would be willing to play its full part.

    In absolute terms, Australia’s 2020 target range translates to a 12 to 22 percentage point reduction on our Kyoto target. In per capita terms, it translates to a 34 to 41 percent reduction on our 1990 emissions levels.

    In achieving these targets, Australians will be matching the efforts made by Europeans in meeting their strong 2020 targets to reduce emissions by 20 to 30 percent below 1990 levels. By implementing the Scheme, Australia will similarly demonstrate that deep cuts in emissions are compatible with continuing economic growth and rising living standards. Australia and the European Union share common values and close historical, political, economic and cultural ties.

    We face many common challenges in foreign, security, trade and economic policy areas. We are working in partnership to implement the Kyoto Protocol and forge a comprehensive post-2012 global outcome on climate change that will deliver the deep cuts in emissions the world requires.

    I hope the ambitious commitments of Australia and the European Union will encourage other developed countries to make comparable commitments, building momentum in international negotiations. Working together, the global community can turn the emission trajectory around and put the world on the path to a low-carbon future.





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    Latest Comments


    As Peter Wood says, the Australian government is trying ot have it both ways on the per capita emissions issue. It wants to use our high per capita emissions as a base, then make a virtue out of modest cuts.

    This point is spelt out here
    http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?EDP://20081218000030657263§ion=opinion&title=Rudd+misread+the+weather

    with further discussion

    http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/12/19/rudd-misread-the-weather/

    Posted by John Quiggin Brisbane, Australia on Monday January 5, 2009 , 11:45 GMT


    Will Australia's 2020 target range make an international agreement that delivers the deep cuts the world requires easier, or harder? Senator Wong states that Australia would be willing to play its full part in global agreement that would result in stabilising global greenhouse gas concentrations at 450ppm. This statement is welcome, but it raises two questions: is 450ppm enough; and is Australia’s goal of cutting emissions by 15 percent in 2020 consistent with 450ppm target?

    On the second question, we should keep in mind that Australia's per-capita emissions are over two-and-a-half times as high as those of the EU. Australia's emissions may amount to a 34 to 41 percent per-capita reduction on our 1990 emissions levels; but at these rates, it will take over a century for Australia's per-capita emissions and the EU per-capita emissions to converge to the same value.

    Australia's climate change advisor, Prof. Ross Garnuat, stated that an Australian emission reduction of 25 percent would be consistent with 450ppm. This is based on a "contraction and convergence" approach to allocating emissions, with convergence occurring in 2050. It also makes some assumptions about carbon cycle feedbacks. A convergence date of 2050 is at the limit of what developing countries would be willing to accept. High per-capita emitters, such as Australia, need to be flexible on the question of how many emissions allocations go to high per-capita emitters. Australia should therefore be willing to accept emissions reductions of over 25 percent if an agreement adds up to 450ppm.

    The only way that a 15 percent reduction could be consistent with 450 ppm is if the world significantly overshot this target. This is not consistent with Australia playing its full part. Australia's target range makes a comprehensive international agreement that avoids dangerous climate change more difficult to achieve.



    Posted by Peter Wood Canberra, Australia on Monday January 5, 2009 , 07:42 GMT

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