The continuing strength of the insurgency and the Afghan government’s weakness make Western and European defeat in Afghanistan a realistic prospect, warns a report published by the newly-established European Council on Foreign Relations, a London-based think-tank.
The report recently presented in Brussels by its author, Daniel Korski, says that six years of war and the biggest military operation in the history of NATO have failed to subdue the Afghan insurgency.
“A swift and successful end to the conflict is out of reach: even optimistic scenarios foresee an international presence in Afghanistan for years to come,” EuAsiaNews quoted the 35- page report as underlining. The Taliban insurgency will continue to grow stronger as winter ends, it says.
Korski, a former advisor to the Afghan minister for counter-narcotics, called on the international community to encourage President Hamid Karzai to engage “moderate” insurgents by offering financial and other incentives to support the government.
He stressed that regional cooperation is vital for stability in Afghanistan. “Any stability achieved in Afghanistan will remain unacceptably fragile as long as neighbours such as Pakistan, India, Russia and Iran treat the country as a pawn in their own regional power play.”
The report sees it necessary to address the causes of Pakistan’s quest for “strategic depth” – the fears of encirclement by India. India’s support to Afghanistan is seen in Islamabad as part of a deliberate strategy to encircle Pakistan.
It suggests that the appointment of senior Norwegian diplomat Kai Eide as United Nations envoy for Afghanistan provides a unique opportunity to craft a new international strategy for the country, led by political rather than military goals and driven by a regional and comprehensive approach.
Jamie Shea, Director of Policy Planning in NATO, told the large gathering of diplomats, EU officials, experts and journalists that “we have to do better in the next five years than what we have done in the last five years.” Shea claimed that most of Afghanistan is relatively “calm, stable and secure.”
On her part, Helen Campbell, head of unit for ties with Afghanistan and Pakistan in the European Commission, said only a long-term commitment and a comprehensive approach will lead to success in Afghanistan.
She noted that the EC has committed a package worth 610 million Euro for Afghanistan for 2007-2010. The package focuses on three key priority areas: reform of the justice sector; rural development including alternatives to poppy production; and health. The EU’s executive body remains one of the top donors in Afghanistan and one of the very few giving a multi-year commitment.